Market Commentary

Recent perspectives from our Chief Investment Officer

Q4 2025: Overview

January 14, 2026

A Chairde (Dear Friends),

The year is already off to a rip-roaring start for DAIR. Like many of you, we are doing our level best to keep pace with opportunity, complexity, and change—without losing sight of who we are or why we do what we do. In times like these that move so quickly and occasionally feel concerningly uncertain, it's worth remembering Tolkien's quiet truth: "There is some good in this world, and it's worth fighting for." May that be our shared reminder to stay true, to act with integrity, and to keep building what matters.

2025 In Review:

2025 was a year full of regime shifts and was very far removed from the market conditions of 2023 and 2024, which, barring brief pockets of abnormal price action, were years of steady upwards momentum for BTC and certain segments of crypto beta. 2025 did deliver meaningful opportunities but it did so through distinct phase transitions that repeatedly rewarded tactical trading and diverse / dynamic skill sets: early-year caution and liquidity discipline, mid-year momentum positioning, and late-year risk management under sudden de-leveraging conditions.

From a portfolio construction perspective, the year reinforced the key principles we continue to hold and prioritise above all else: in the digital asset sector, returns are rarely linear, risk is rarely evenly distributed and taking one-way directional bets that most / all developments in crypto are going to win is foolish. The best outcomes come from combining directional conviction, long or short, with structural awareness. That essentially means understanding A) who the marginal buyer and seller is, B) where liquidity resides, and C) how positioning has shifted — not just guessing where price goes next.

The year began as an extension of the Q4 2024 breakout but quickly transitioned into a macro-dominated risk off regime in Q1, then we had a reflexive momentum rebound in Q2, followed by a flow driven and corporate-adoption acceleration in Q3, and finally a sharp deleveraging event in Q4 that meaningfully impaired risk appetite into year-end.

The full report outlines our 2025 performance, key market-moving events, and how we positioned around associated risks and opportunities, providing insight into DAIR's investment process.

Darren Dineen

Founding Partner/CIO

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