Recent perspectives from our Chief Investment Officer
July 14, 2025
Q3 update coming soon
This quarter was…well, in a word – eventful. But then again, we are living through a period of time where days feel like weeks and weeks like months – the novelty wave is rip curling. We have stressed for quite some time that the days of relying on conventional methods of evaluating market behaviours are over and with that, distinguishing between "event risk" and "normal functioning" is ludicrous.
Let's start with the central banks, because of course, Christine Lagarde (or Blaggard, as I like to call her) at the ECB, and JPow at the Fed, are still performing this ballet between data dependence and politicking – managing to both vastly underwhelm and overpromise simultaneously.
Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan — central banking's original mad scientist — finally flinched. Yield curve control broke down, global carry trades shuddered, and a lot of very clever people found out what happens when you short volatility and the Bank of Japan loses the script. Spoiler: no bueno.
Trade tensions? Worse than a Cold War – the thermostat is broken. Meanwhile, BRICS is attempting to bootstrap an alternative trade system, central banks are hoarding gold like it's 1971, and the U.S. dollar, while still wearing the crown, now finds itself sharing a stage with stablecoins, CBDCs, and a growing list of digital payment rails.
And yet…beneath all this chaos, something quietly impressive happened: Bitcoin entered juggernaut mode by returning to and eclipsing all-time highs in an almost straight line up and to the right from the April bottom. ETH outperformed Bitcoin for the first time in three quarters. Stablecoin velocity outside the U.S. hit record levels. Real-world assets — tokenized, regulated, and now revenue-generating.
At DAIR, we do not spend time waiting for clarity that is never going to come. We speak to many market participants who are cautious and conservative right now – sitting in bonds that are fundamentally the worst place to park capital in this environment under the illusion of safety and that some fictitious moment will come where it will all become clear. You sharpen your edge and generate real returns by being in the market – not sidelined.
Our products are designed for the current moment: offering convex, yield-accreting, and uncorrelated returns. This is not a market that rewards those who wait for perfect information. It is not about predicting the next move — it is about surviving every move.
So yes: to sum it up, we will borrow the phrase from Lyn Alden (who borrowed it from Breaking Bad), because it hits so well. It's brutal, inevitable, and true:
Nothing stops this train.
Darren Dineen
Founding Partner/CIO
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